Nifty Daily View !

Welcorp... A dead cat bounce???

What you see below are the Daily and the Hourly chart of Welcorp. The stock witnessed some visicious selling due to bad results.

If you notice the chart hourly to your right you would see that after the initial selloff at the opening, the stock just meandered sideways for the rest of the day hinting at some kind of exhaustion. Since the stock had fallen sharply and extended to far away from its nearest 20 period EMA, the sideways consolidation enabled the EMA to drift lower trying to catch up with the price.

And if you take a look at the Daily chart on the left you would see the same story. Price has drifted too far away from the key EMA'S. Infact there is a confluence of 20/50/200 EMA'S at the 100 odd levels. With the markets poised to open up positively it needs to be seen whether WELCORP is game for a dead cat back bounce or not . In all probability it is, as they say , a rising tide lifts all boats, even the leaking and squeaking types.

SO let us see how this one behaves today !

 EDIT at market close today:

Nifty Views !!!

This is the follow up on my last post where I had mentioned Nifty is niether Bullish Nor Bearish but it was just in a range !!!

Do take a look at the Weekly chart below:

1. You can clearly see a down channel and price trading on the upper end !
2. It took support at the 20 EMA on the weekly and faced resistance at the 50 EMA !
3. On Weekly we are still above the 200 EMA !
4. No lower low on Weekly !

Now take a look at the Daily chart below:

1. Like mentioned ...Yes there is and HNS visible !
2. Yes price has found solace (see the arrows) at the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.
3. The confluence of 20 EMA and 200 EMA are just overhead.
4. 7850 still remains important for close.
5. Though the price made a lower high it has failed to break the LOW (marked in green arrow),thus making a higher low.

Now the Hourly Chart:

1. The GAP (shaded in yellow) provided support and then resistance and now the price is at it.
2. At the time of writing this post the world markets seems to be doing well so Yes...A gap up is possible tommorow.
3. An inital early morning gap usuaually results in sideways drifting of the price, primarily for two reasons. One either it needs to pull back check the GAP strength and secondly it enables the EMA's to catch with the price for the next move.

Its not necessary to trade daily and nor its important to scream BULL and BEAR. Actually we just do not know anything about the direction of the market. We all make intelligent guesses and the only difference between all the guessers is that some always stick to their trading plans and stick to their Stops, while others just play the game of HOPE and LUCK!!!!

Nifty Daily Views !!!

Nifty Views !!!

In the last one week NIFTY has done nothing besides moving in a range. Yes everyday some chanalyst would come and say today it rallied and today it was fall! Its there job and they are good at it- Scintillating and Scandalising, after all this sells!

Below is the Nifty Daily chart and some observations;

• The RED shaded area is what exactly was the FALL and the GREEN shaded area is the Rally!
• The YELLOW shaded corner is the RANGE.
• If you notice that after piercing above the 20/200 EMA confluence (look at the yellow shaded area) the price has has tested it twice, bounced back from there and managed to close above it.
• The Close at 7814 is wee above the 200 EMA at 7779 and the 20 EMA at 7806.
• Yes a Lower High is indeed in place but not a Lower Low !Why 7850 is important? Because its the last month close. 

 

 

 

The Daily Chart below has;

 

• The overhead resistance zone in RED.
• The Unfilled Gap below in Blue.
• Here also price tested the 200 EMA and bounced back from there. 
• The price is now nestled between the 200 EMA on hourly chart at 7795 and the overhead converging 20/50 EMA's at approx 7840. These are important because very often if a price gaps up or down then it moves sideways or pulls back during intra day towards the ema for consolidation.

In Technical Analysis we deal with probabilities based on the past price action imprinted on the charts. There are no certainities here !

Cheers !!!

NF Hourly Chart at 11:30 a.m. !

With a negative close in US markets and weak to flattish Asian opening in the morning, NF has maintained its reselience. After a strong opening and a good expansion move in the first 30 mins, it has started drifting sideways. Price action whenever expands or stretches away from its nearest EMA, it tends to pullback or move sideways so as to enable the EMA to catch up with it ! Most often it takes support at the EMA during this pullback/sideway movements and the prepare for the next move up or down!
It wont be of much surprise that this sideways movement might continue till the European markets open.

Anyway below is the NF hourly chart which is self explanatory;

As of now a close above and holding above 7935 is important to test the strength of the Bulls.

Simply put the MOJO lies above that !!!

Cheers !!!

NF Daily Chart !!!

Below is the Daily chart of NF (Close at 7865). Some objective points to consider;

This is the first time in the intermediate uptrend its made a LH.

Price is taken support at the 200 EMA roughly at 7790.

The 20 EMA is at 7820, so this range 7820-7790 is support of sorts.

Monday's Candle Hi (7912) and Lo (7775) are two levels to watch out for on Closing basis for any significant direction NF will take.

The previous HL at 7700 is a Pivot of sorts...which might trigger a lot bearishness considering the fact that if NF trades below it; not only it breaks an important Pivot but also trades below its 50 EMA!!!

Its wiser to trade your LEVELS and not your WISHFUL THINKING !

Wishful thinking for a BEAR would be that once it break the HL pivot it might as well go and close that GAP (you can see underneath) too....!!!

So signing of this post by saying "If wishes were horses.......!"

Cheers !!!

NF Hourly Chart !

What you see below is the Hourly Chart of NF. Its a line chart. There are times when too many gaps and volatile movements make your usual chart (Candlestick with all those wicks and Bar Charts with their tails) a bit of a mess to look at. It pays (literally) to switch to line charts to get a clear picture of the price action. After all Line chart is purely based on close price and its the Close which is very important !

What I want to illustrate from the above chart is;

1. The price action was a bit confusing with gaps and volatility as shown in the small inset pic (candlesticks). However when moved to line chart it clearly showed a small HNS formation complete with RSI Divergence.

2. The down leg shaded in red is also what one would say formation of LH and LL sequence.

If you ever get confused with your Candles and Bars you can switch to the LINE; which would have given you a clear short signal at 7885 with 20 pointer stop (which was tad above the right shoulder).

Therefore I repeat again if you get confused with a messy chart formation try and switch to line chart to get a clear picture !

Cheers !!!

Suzlon Views !!!

Today had a chat with few friends on ICharts and we got discussing Suzlon,vis a vis renewed interest of the government and the push in renewable energy sector ...Wind and Solar. Suzlon obviously cropped up for discussion. So googled some news on it which you can read here and here. In the second link something of interes is:

 "Wind energy might have missed big headlines but the deal street was buzzing with action. Dilip Sanghvi, chairman of Sun Pharma, bought 23 per cent stake in Suzlon Energy as a personal investment."


So is there a turn around story which will pan out in a year or two. Are the smart people in for the long haul???

The Weekly Picture:

On the weekly chart above strictly going by th TA tenets the price is below its all critical EMA's. For last few weeks its just moved sideways but a point to note is that there is plenty of trading going on as the volume shows. I know its a punter stock and mucho traded. It was one of the most active scrips in Nifty 200 today !

The Daily Drama;

As from the above chart you can see the Double Bottom did not really play out as a pattern. And now a small insignificant Double Top. The price is as the confluence of the 20/50 Ema's which are still bearish as the 20 EMA is still below the 50 EMA.

I would not like to trade it as daytrade, but yes a buy above 15 with a SL tad below 13 is good place for that ELUSIVE LONG HAUL ! Its going to be a very slow move, condidering that fact a single rupee and a half movement in it right now is A 10% move !!!!

If anyone out there has anything to add to the above and is following Suzlon actively do let me know in the comment section.

Cheers!!!

DCB Daily Chart.....A Rounding Bottom and a Tiny Flag !!!

Below is the daily chart of DCB and few insights from the chart;

1.  A nice rounding bottom from Oct 15 till April 16 where it did try to break out above the overhead GAP resistance.
2.  A pullback from their with small red candles all within the range of that big Green Expansion.
3. Price nestled between the 200 And 20 EMA.
4. If you were following this chart than a very good entry was at 75-77 level (marked in the yellow ellipse) where the price broke out of the 20/50 EMA,s and also the 20/50 EMA's crossed upwards signalling a positive note.
5. There is a Gap below unfilled that might be a cause of concern.

A buy above 91.60 (200 EMA on the chart...this might stall the move) with a Stop tad below the gap at 84 is a good way to play this. The immediate overhead target is 101-103. Lets see how this pans out or will drift sideways for few days to make yet another pattern the CNH ! For the conservative people a very safe idea is to keep watching and buy the breakout above 103 if accompanied by volumes.

Manappuram Gold Montly Chart...At Inflection Point !!!

Sensex and Its Indices Above (Green) and Below (Red) their 200 EMA Weekly !!!

NF Hourly and 15 Minutes Chart !

Posted above are the Hourly and 15 Min charts of Nifty Future;

Hourly (on the Left Side);

As you can clearly see and marked by red dashed line that the sequence of Price making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The shaded area was the gap that got filled and Price did spend some volatile movements there. It needs to clear it with conviction. And also reclaim the previous Pivot above.

15 Mins (On the Right Side);

The situation is pretty same the recent pivot high is also at the previous congestion area.


Right now for NF the overhead resistances are in the range of 7790-7810 and then immediately above is the congestion area of 7830-50. Above that road is clear for another 100 points!!!
Having said that let me also add that Price normally tends to follow the path of least resistance and right now the path of least resistance look like the path downwards.

Charts and their interpretations are subjective. As the saying goes "Two men saw through the bars (candles in this case (:- ), one saw the dust (bear) the other stars (bull) ! In the end the only sane advice that has stood the test of time is the gujrati saying "Bhav hi Bhagwan Che"

Cheers !

Federal Bank Daily !

Below is the Hourly Chart of Federal Bank;

A nice CNH pattern that just did not play yet as twice price met with rejection at the old support now resi zone.

Agin I reiterate its a swing play than a day trade scalp !!!!

Weekend Views On Nifty !

Friday saw a very subdued movement in the Nifty, with weak Asian cues and none positives coming in from the West, our Index held out on its own. With negative headwinds from China and weak rest of the markets Nifty was kinda strongest Index performing!!!

Posted below is the Daily chart and some insights from it are;

1. The long term trend still down.
2. The intermediate trend (is up) marked in Red and Blue arrows signifies HL and HH still in play.
3. The last candle sort of hammer, where the bulls took charge right back after testing the 50 EMA (the yellow line).
4. Price is precariously positioned between the confluence of 20/200 EMA and 50 EMA.
5. The confluence of 20/200 at approx 7770-75 is also incidentaly the 20 EMA on the monthly chart.

Monday might see a flat to slight gap up opening if all bodes well. On the daily chart there is almost a 100 point range between the overhead resistance and support below and a decisive break of this range with conviction will set the tone for future movement/direction of Nifty.

Right Now How are You Trading?.....Doji Style????

NF 15 Minutes Chart...A Gap down and a 30 Pointer Range Established !

Edit and Follow-up post after market closing hours:

NF Chart Views !!!!

The Daily Drama;

As you can see from the chart below the NF traded in a tight range as there was no clear clues from the East as well as the West but what it did BEST was to hold its ground !!!. In the intermediate uptrend which appears to hold water so far the NF tried and tested the resistance provided by the confluence of 20/200 EMA and still held above the 50 EMA.

The best trend identification ; sequence of  high and higher high accompanied by higher low is still visible on the daily chart and like I said above so far the intermediate uptrend holds water....

Another thing I want to point is that there seems to be a hint of Hidden Divergence (Bullish) on the daily chart as marked on the chart with red dotted lines.

The Hourly Picture;

The hourly shows that the GAP that NF filled was the reason it was subdued. Price action does test and retest gap areas. Plus here also you will see that small redline was the 200 EMA on the hourly charts.

The 15 Minute Break;

The chart below lucidly illustrates the concept of old supports turn to resistances.

So if one were to see what does one get????

 Well you get the broader view, the hourly will give you support and resi levels to plan your trade and the 15 minute chart would give you the entry !!!

Its a buy between 7780-7800 with an immediate target of 7830 which might stall the move up for sometime and would require a push accompanied by volumes. Above that its NF's play ground or I must say its upto the Bulls to show their Mojo!!!.

Howsoever a break of today low might result in a sudden 50 pointer drop before any buying comes in.

I have always stressed that its not important to trade daily or trade for the sake of trading. Whatever one does he or she shall make sure as soon as you place your trade, the next second one should place the STOP !!!!

Nifty Future Daily Views !!!

Nifty Views !!!!

What you see above is the Daily Chart of Nifty. Some plain simple observations;

1. On Daily we are clearly in a downtrend and the recent uptrend can be simply called an intermediate uptrend. For the Purists it can be a bearsih flag in the making and might be an onset for next leg down !!!

2. The Fibbonacci lovers would rejoice how the price reacted at;

     (a). 33.33 retracemnt levels found resistance then conquered it and then retested it before the leg up.
     (b). Similarly now 50 was tested and price retreaded from there.

3. The area marked in the white ellipse is of great significance vis a vis price action. There is a lot of confluence of things out there. There is the 50% fib resi. There is the old price resi now support zone.
Ofcourse there is a Gap fill to be done. And most importantly there is the 200 EMA and 20/50 Ema congregating there for a crossover. Price action gets volatile whenever a major EMA (200 EMA in this case) is breached or tested !!!

As far as the Price keeps on making HL and HH trade in the direction of the trend.

Always remember in Technical Analysis we deal with probabilities and not certainities and as the adage goes trend is your best friend the remeber STOP LOSS is like your WIFE !!! You may want to hold on to her no matter what !!!!

Cheers !

I will be writing AGAIN!!!

Yup,

I might just revive this blog back!!!

I do love TA and most importantly I enjoy writing...

A sabbatical too long.....

Hope I get back into the groove soon !!!

Till then cheers....!